Meteorologist Matt Brode

Super Monday

Matt Brode — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:16:04 +0000

Despite your take on the outcome of the Super Bowl, we are headed for a super Monday. I’m Meteorologist Matt Brode with the details.
Expect another full day of sunshine across the region today with those gusty east winds. Highs today will be in the low to mid 50s – but with the breeze, it will feel much cooler. Some of the warmest weather can be found at the coast where some spots may hit 60 degrees.
A couple of weak systems will move into the region tomorrow through Wednesday. Increasing clouds will be the main story with a slight chance of a sprinkle or light shower in the valley. The coast could see a few more showers on Wednesday.
Overall, this week will be characterized by drier than average weather and temps at or slightly above average.
Have a great day, Matt Brode
Follow me on twitter: @mattbrode

A Groundhog Preview

Matt Brode — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 19:49:57 +0000

Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow tomorrow? Shadow or no shadow we are looking at a very springlike forecast as we begin the month of February.
A very weak disturbance moved through the district overnight and brought a little rain and mountain snow to the region. Skies have cleared out mostly and all I expect for the remainder of the day is an isolated sprinkle or flurry in the highest terrain.
Temperatures will top off into the low 50s in many spots with increasing amounts of sunshine. Due to the clear skies nighttime lows will dip to near freezing and even below in the outlying areas. Some frost and freezing fog are possible for the Thursday morning commute so drive with caution.
Long term models keep us mostly sunny and dry all the way through the weekend with cold nights and bright sunny days with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. An east wind will develop which should limit much of the AM fog.
Have a great day, Meteorologist Matt Brode
Follow me on twitter @mattbrode

A Little Rain Followed by Spring?

Matt Brode — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 19:23:18 +0000

If you liked the weather on Monday, today should be nearly a carbon copy. Mostly cloudy skies today with some occasional sun-breaks. Overall temperatures should remain in the upper 40s, and I think we see less widespread 50s. Clouds lower and thicken overnight as a pretty weak rain maker approaches the area.
Rain should begin sometime after midnight in the valleys and continue through the morning commute on Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon the rain is gone and we see the clouds begin to decay.
Due to the moisture, we may see some fog early Thursday morning, but breezy east winds will develop and sun will return to the region for most of the period through the weekend – and possibly even beyond.
Have a terrific Tuesday,
Matt Brode
Follow me on twitter: @mattbrode

Spring Fever!

Matt Brode — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 19:54:26 +0000

Happy Monday everyone,
We have some exciting news in the PinPoint Weather Center. Nothing more than a spotty shower today and tomorrow with plenty of sun-breaks with highs near 50! Our next rain chance arrives late Tuesday – Wednesday and quickly moves through the district.
All of our forecasting tools are indicating that the remainder of the work-week will be dry with some morning fog, especially in the valleys, and plenty of afternoon sun. Highs will be above average for the remainder of the week in the low to mid 50s.
So while we officially still have 7 weeks of winter left, I, at least have some spring fever.
Have a great week!

More Flooding Concerns

Matt Brode — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 16:43:38 +0000

After epic rains inundated much of the central Willamette Valley last week, more heavy rain is on the way. A warm front will move through the district today bringing with it more heavy rain. While the rainfall amounts should be less than last week, we still need to be on the lookout for flooding. Urban flooding, small creek and streams are most vulnerable. As a result, a flood watch has been issued for the entire region. The heaviest rain should become lighter tonight and tomorrow and completely taper off by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, it’s a wintry mess in the Gorge through early afternoon today with precipitation beginning as snow, transitioning into freezing rain before switching to all rain by early afternoon. The snow level will climb to near 8000′ today as well, so we are looking at plenty of run-off from melting snow. A sharply long term dry pattern will begin late on Thursday so that will give us all time to scour out.

First Snow, Now Floods

Matt Brode — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 18:58:56 +0000

After a snowy, cold start to our work-week mother nature has delivered a fire hose of moisture. Heavy rains and massive snow melt due to warmer temperatures have rivers and streams on the rise.
Here are some areas flooding right now:
South Yamhill River at McMinnville Pudding River at Aurora Clackamas River at Estacada Clackamas River at Oregon City Johnson Creek at Sycamore
Meanwhile the central Willamette Valley has seen the worst flooding from Salem and Turner.
As always, turn around if you see flooded intersections and roadways.
The other story over the past couple of days is the tremendous amount of snowfall in the Cascades. Here are some 48 hour snow totals:
Ski Bowl 25″ Timberline Lodge 21″ Mt. Hood Meadows 44″
a warm front slowly lifts through the region today, the heaviest rains will taper off by late afternoon. This will give the smaller rivers and creeks some time to subside, however, another storm will move through the region Friday with more rain expected.
Stay with us here at KOIN Local 6 for updates.
Matt Brode

Crazy Weather Week in Portland and the PNW

Matt Brode — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 18:22:34 +0000

Fasten your seatbelts as we have a lot of weather to talk about over the next 24 hours and even beyond…

Numerous watches/warnings are present for NW OR and SW WA for winter weather conditions.

Let’s focus on the next 24 hours first:

Today we will see spotty rain/snow showers with little to no accumulation for valley floors. Highs will be above freezing. Higher elevations around 500-1000’ could see some brief accumulating snows.

More moisture pools into the region tonight and lower temperatures will result in our best chance of accumulating snows in the lowest elevations through Tuesday morning. We could see up to 2” in the lowest elevations (valley floors) and much more in the Coast Range and Cascades.

By late morning/early Tuesday afternoon a warmer system will arrive and change the snow over to steady and even heavy rains. This will occur first at the coast and then the valleys. This transition could take a while moving north of the Portland area and into the Gorge. So snow will likely be flying in Kelso/Longview and into the Gorge well into Tuesday afternoon. (Several inches of snow can be expected in these areas)

That’s a wrap of Tuesday…..

Wednesday:

There is a lot of uncertainty as to what Wednesday will bring. Most of our forecasting tools are indicating that a strong warm front will move through hammering us with heavy rain and high winds at the coast. HOWERVER, there are a minority of models that slow down the warm air and keep us cold enough to support a much more widespread snow event region wide.

While none of our Meteorologists think this will be the case, we can’t discount an area of low-pressure moving farther to the south which would put us in the “snow zone” on Wednesday. Even if the warm scenario plays out, places in the Gorge could see a very wintry mess of ice, sleet and freezing rain due to cold easterly winds.

There is so much disagreement that a hurricane recon flight flew out of Hawaii yesterday to try and refine our models. As a result of this uncertainty, all of the region will be placed under a Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday into Thursday. I will repeat, we believe there is a possibility of this happening, but most models and Meteorologists think this will not occur. Stay tuned to Bruce later today as some of the later models may come into better agreement.

It WILL Snow in Portland

Matt Brode — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 23:06:24 +0000

It seems like Portland is always on the bubble when it come to snow. We have so many near hits but so few home-runs. I am about 100% sure that snow will fall in the lowest elevations of downtown Portland and the airport.

We, Meteorologists, use a lot of tools to predict the weather. Current analysis, experience and serious computer models. Let’s review the models.

The NAM is probably our best short range (out to 84 hours) model. It shows plenty of cold air and enough moisture to drop snow to the valley floor.

The GFS is a longer range model and it agrees completely with the NAM

The Canadian and European models are also used (the EURO more frequently) and they are actually even colder than our “domestic” models.

I could really geek out even more and go into more detail but here’s my assurance. At some point in time from Sunday-Tuesday if you live in the City of Portland you will see snow. In my two years of forecasting in the City of Portland, this is the first time I’ve been so convinced.

I think the limiting factors, for the lowest elevations will be some onshore flow, the rain shadow effect (where the Coast Range steals our moisture) and the fact that temperatures will mainly be above freezing, so not more than 1-2″ in the valley but with any elevation a good 2-4″ could stick.

Get ready for a major pattern change by Wednesday – mild weather should return with potentially heavy rains. There may be a narrow window where the cold air is in place that we could see some ice issues but more on that later.

Let it snow!

Matt Brode — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 17:43:25 +0000

Gusty east/northeast winds have developed across the area today. Crown Point has already seen gusts near 70 mph. The winds kept temperatures up overnight in most spots, but in sheltered areas especially in the southern valley and in Vancouver temperatures dipped into the 20s.
Highs today will be in the mid 40s with blustery winds (especially near the gorge). Tonight will be similar with more spots above freezing due to the winds. If you are sheltered from the winds, look out for some frost.
The weather stays dry through Saturday then a very cold airmass will drop out of Canada and start dropping our snow levels by Sunday afternoon. It’s too soon to tell, but many valley locales could see snow flakes and even some minor accumulations Sunday night into Monday. The weather will remain cool through Wednesday of next week with possible low snows continuing.
Please stay tunes to KOIN Local 6 online and on Facebook.

Be sure to follow me on twitter for updates @mattbrode

Change is in the Air

Matt Brode — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 17:30:59 +0000

Good Tuesday everyone, after some morning fog and even a couple of slick spots, we are headed for some sunshine today. It has been a very dry winter so far and dry weather will dominate for at least a few more days. Highs today should to off into the mid 40s.
High pressure working into the eastern part of the state will provide gusty winds in the Gorge Wed and Thu and make sure that any fog that develops in the metro doesn’t get too of hand. Highs will be chilly – in the mid 40s and nighttime lows in the upper 20s.
Here’s the kicker: a significant change to our western pattern looks fairly likely as we make our way late into the weekend and much of next week. A more active storm track will prevail and give us much more wet weather and even the chance of some very low snows. We still have plenty of time to fine-tune the forecast but please stay-tuned.
Matt Brode