While the Mexican Monsoon typically winds down at the end of September, folks in Tucson begin to whine about the return of the heat. “The monsoon wasn’t like it used to be” “We had non-soons” Such laments founded in fact or fable needn’t matter. The Sonoran Desert is called a desert for a reason. It just doesn’t get that much rain!
Not so fast:
Another fact many people in the southwest are soon to forget, is that despite the infrequency, late September through late October can be relentless months when it comes to rain. Why? Well let’s not forget, my friends, that we are smack-dab in the middle of peak hurricane season. Remember Octave in 1983? Remember Olivia in 2000? Well for a place that receives just under 12.00″ of rain annually, both October’s (1983 and 2000) yielded 5.00″ of rain.
As weak tropical storm Georgette moves into the Gulf of California, moisture will surge into the region. A trough of low-pressure off the coast of California will help capture this moisture and act as a trigger to get things kicked-up. So is it time to build an ark? No, I’ve seen plenty of similar situations where diurnal dynamics, warming aloft etc. have capped flooding rains, but I would certainly keep an eye to the sky on this one.