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Most Of Oregon Had A White Christmas and A Dry 2013?

Unless you live along the Coast or in the Willamette Valley, chances are good you had a white Christmas.
From the Coast Range to the Gorge, to the Cascades and points east –

snow was in the air. Check out some of these snow totals. Christmas2012

Back in Portland Christmas was a wet day with cool temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The front that brought the rain and snow is lifting out and behind it is cool showery weather.

So weatherwise, prepare for scattered showers for the remainder of the night with temperatures falling slowly into the upper 30s. If you are headed out to a movie, grab an umbrella and the rain gear, but overall the heaviest rain has ended.

Tomorrow some scattered showers will roll-in as the next weather maker moves to our south. Highs will be in the mid 40s.

Get ready for this breaking news: Thursday through next year – that’s right I said next year – should be mainly dry! Morning fog, followed by partly sunny skies is the forecast from Friday and beyond – courtesy of a dry east wind.

On A Final And Personal Note,although I was unable to be with my family today, I am grateful that we will all celebrate tomorrow in San Diego. Working with my wife Kacey is always fun, and my in-laws near Dallas, Texas had a wonderful Christmas surprise – A White Christmas. They sent me this beautiful picture which I showed on the 6pm news tonight. Dallas

Merry Christmas to all, and all a goodnight,

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A White Christmas? Portland’s Chances Are Better Than Some

Twas the night before Christmas,IMG_2968
And all through the air,

Conditions were dry,

And the weather was fair,

Kids were hoping for snow,
Well into the night,

With the hope of some snow,
Christmas would be white.

Dreams do come true and many parts of the region will see snow on Christmas day – but probably only rain in the lowest terrain.

A strong winter weather storm is moving toward the region and will bring plenty of rain to the region on Christmas day. If you live near the Gorge or in the highest hills, you may see some snowflakes mixing in with rain very early Christmas morning. Otherwise, it’s a wet Christmas for the valley with highs in the mid 40s.

The coast will be wet and breezy, the Coast Range will pick-up 2-6″ of snow before changing back over to rain. The Cascades will pick-up another foot or more of snow and the Gorge east of Multnomah Falls should pick-up plenty of snow.

Here’s a factoid that may make you feel better about our white Christmas chances: The city of Miami has a 1-in-20,000 chance of having a white Christmas. It has never happened and it has been 35 years since Miami has even seen snow.

It WILL Snow in Portland

It seems like Portland is always on the bubble when it come to snow. We have so many near hits but so few home-runs. I am about 100% sure that snow will fall in the lowest elevations of downtown Portland and the airport.

We, Meteorologists, use a lot of tools to predict the weather. Current analysis, experience and serious computer models. Let’s review the models.

The NAM is probably our best short range (out to 84 hours) model. It shows plenty of cold air and enough moisture to drop snow to the valley floor.

The GFS is a longer range model and it agrees completely with the NAM

The Canadian and European models are also used (the EURO more frequently) and they are actually even colder than our “domestic” models.

I could really geek out even more and go into more detail but here’s my assurance. At some point in time from Sunday-Tuesday if you live in the City of Portland you will see snow. In my two years of forecasting in the City of Portland, this is the first time I’ve been so convinced.

 

I think the limiting factors, for the lowest elevations will be some onshore flow, the rain shadow effect (where the Coast Range steals our moisture) and the fact that temperatures will mainly be above freezing, so not more than 1-2″ in the valley but with any elevation a good 2-4″ could stick.

Get ready for a major pattern change by Wednesday – mild weather should return with potentially heavy rains. There may be a narrow window where the cold air is in place that we could see some ice issues but more on that later.

Let it snow!

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