TUCSON – With only a few days remaining in November, it seems likely that the month will go into the record books as slightly cooler than average.
October was also cooler than average. The last time Tucson strung together consecutive months with below average temperatures was November 2015 – January 2016. It’s a tight race but with a big pattern change arriving the last day of the month, odds favor another below average.
High pressure will result in mostly sunny and warm conditions Wednesday as highs warm well above average into the mid 70s. Thursday begins warm but then we track a cold front barreling down from the north. This front will pick up our winds and give us the best rain chance we’ve seen in almost a month. Most of our forecast tools indicate light rain – up to a 1/4″ with 1-3″ of snow for Mt. Lemmon.
Rain is likely early Friday morning and highs will top off only into the low 60s. This cooler air mass will stick around through the entire weekend and another shot of light rain is possible through Monday. Sunday through Tuesday look very cold as temperatures struggle to get out of the mid-to-upper 50s.
Snow levels will come crashing to 4500′ early Sunday morning, and some of the higher towns in the region could pick up a dusting of snow.
The Climate Prediction Center keeps well below average temperatures around for much of next week as well.
So giddy up Rudolph, it’s beginning to look – and feel – a lot like Christmas.
TUCSON – Heads up trick-or-treaters, this Halloween will bring a spooky chill to the area and temperatures will quickly fall into the 50s as soon as 8 PM tonight.
Much cooler air has filtered into the region after yesterday’s cold front and a Freeze Warning – the first of the season – has been issued for the coolest sections of SE Arizona. So expect freezing to briefly sub-freezing temperatures in the areas shaded in purple.
Here’s a list of forecast lows for sections of the region tonight.
Finally, this cool air mass isn’t too rare for this time of year.
So bundle up and enjoy the changing of the seasons.
TUCSON – Today marked the 12th consecutive day the City of Tucson has seen below average temperatures. Out of the 17 days so far this month, 14 have been below average.
If you compare the first 17 days of October this year to last year, well there is simply no comparison. This year’s average October temperature is more than 10 degrees cooler.
We’re off to the coldest start to October since 1982 – when through the first 17 days the average temperature was 67.4 degrees.
Many years we talk about the latest 100 degree day occurring in October: well forget about that. The highest temperature we’ve recorded this month has been a “cool” 89 degrees.
Don’t look now but warmer weather is in the forecast, but even highs on the warmest days look to only be a degree or two above average.
With two weeks still remaining of the month, it would take a major heat wave to put the entire month of October above average…and that isn’t in the forecast. This means October 2018 will be the first below average month we’ve seen since September of 2016.
TUCSON – Rain overspread much of metro Tucson – AGAIN – tonight and more rain is in the forecast tonight through Tuesday. And oh, don’t look now, but more rain is possible this weekend and even into next week if we can tap into Tropical Storm Tara.
Okay back to the big chill: the first 15 days of October have been colder than the first 15 days of November last year. (How is that even possible?)
So halfway through the month, we now rank as the 19th coldest October since records have been kept (1894). What’s more staggering is if you take out most of the colder October’s which occurred at the beginning of the 20th century, this October ranks as the 4th coldest since 1959! Only the first 15 days of October in 1966, 1970, and 1982 were colder!
And by the way, it’s currently snowing on top of Mt. Graham. See the image below.
TUCSON – Record rain (0.76″) on Wednesday put the monsoon total in Tucson at 7.01″. This is the fifth year in-a-row that the City of Tucson has exceeded its monsoon average of 6.08″.
In addition, for the first time since the early 1980s, Tucson has picked up over 7.00″ of rain in three consecutive years.
Drought conditions remain across much of the State of Arizona and according to chief Meteorologist Matt Brode, this is in part due to fewer Winter storms over the past several years.
Abundant monsoon rain has the City of Tucson in a small yearly surplus, but we’ll need to pick up about another 3″ of rain through the end of the year to match our annual average of almost 12″ of rain.
Even though summer doesn’t officially end for a few more weeks, meteorological summer (June, July and August) is now in the record books.
While parts of Cochise County remain in a major surplus of summer rain – even despite a dry August – Tucson will go into the books hot and dry.
Here is a synopsis of summer 2013 at Tucson International Airport where records are kept.
Today marks the exact mid-point of the monsoon- as defined by its calendar start and stop dates.
With a lull in monsoon storms today, it’s a perfect time to assess how areas in Southern Arizona stand when it comes to summer rain.
With the exception of the Tucson International Airport, all reporting cities and towns have recorded above average rainfall.
Tucson is less than 0.10″ below average while places like Douglas have received over 13.00″ of rain since the start of the monsoon.
In fact, Douglas has seen the second wettest monsoon ever; with half of the season still remaining.
The monsoon should shutdown for the rest of the week with slight storm chances returning later in the weekend.
Meanwhile, the drier air will warm up more efficiently as temperatures begin to climb back into the upper 90s to near 100.
Here are some rainfall amounts courtesy of the NWS in Tucson.