The October chill continues

TUCSON – Today marked the 12th consecutive day the City of Tucson has seen below average temperatures. Out of the 17 days so far this month, 14 have been below average.

If you compare the first 17 days of October this year to last year, well there is simply no comparison. This year’s average October temperature is more than 10 degrees cooler.

We’re off to the coldest start to October since 1982 – when through the first 17 days the average temperature was 67.4 degrees.

Many years we talk about the latest 100 degree day occurring in October: well forget about that. The highest temperature we’ve recorded this month has been a “cool” 89 degrees.

Don’t look now but warmer weather is in the forecast, but even highs on the warmest days look to only be a degree or two above average.

With two weeks still remaining of the month, it would take a major heat wave to put the entire month of October above average…and that isn’t in the forecast. This means October 2018 will be the first below average month we’ve seen since September of 2016.

Advertisements

What month is it? More cold, rain and snow is here.

TUCSON – Rain overspread much of metro Tucson – AGAIN – tonight and more rain is in the forecast tonight through Tuesday. And oh, don’t look now, but more rain is possible this weekend and even into next week if we can tap into Tropical Storm Tara.

Okay back to the big chill: the first 15 days of October have been colder than the first 15 days of November last year. (How is that even possible?)

So halfway through the month, we now rank as the 19th coldest October since records have been kept (1894). What’s more staggering is if you take out most of the colder October’s which occurred at the beginning of the 20th century, this October ranks as the 4th coldest since 1959! Only the first 15 days of October in 1966, 1970, and 1982 were colder!

 

And by the way, it’s currently snowing on top of Mt. Graham. See the image below.

Recent rain puts Tucson in a monsoon surplus for the fifth straight year

TUCSON – Record rain (0.76″) on Wednesday put the monsoon total in Tucson at 7.01″. This is the fifth year in-a-row that the City of Tucson has exceeded its monsoon average of 6.08″.

In addition, for the first time since the early 1980s, Tucson has picked up over 7.00″ of rain in three consecutive years.

Drought conditions remain across much of the State of Arizona and according to chief Meteorologist Matt Brode, this is in part due to fewer Winter storms over the past several years.

Abundant monsoon rain has the City of Tucson in a small yearly surplus, but we’ll need to pick up about another 3″ of rain through the end of the year to match our annual average of almost 12″ of rain.

Meteorological Summer Ends

Even though summer doesn’t officially end for a few more weeks, meteorological summer (June, July and August) is now in the record books.

While parts of Cochise County remain in a major surplus of summer rain – even despite a dry August – Tucson will go into the books hot and dry.

Here is a synopsis of summer 2013 at Tucson International Airport where records are kept.

Matt Climo

Monsoon Midterm Report

Today marks the exact mid-point of the monsoon- as defined by its calendar start and stop dates.

With a lull in monsoon storms today, it’s a perfect time to assess how areas in Southern Arizona stand when it comes to summer rain.

With the exception of the Tucson International Airport, all reporting cities and towns have recorded above average rainfall.

Tucson is less than 0.10″ below average while places like Douglas have received over 13.00″ of rain since the start of the monsoon.

In fact, Douglas has seen the second wettest monsoon ever; with half of the season still remaining.

The monsoon should shutdown for the rest of the week with slight storm chances returning later in the weekend.

Meanwhile, the drier air will warm up more efficiently as temperatures begin to climb back into the upper 90s to near 100.

Here are some rainfall amounts courtesy of the NWS in Tucson. seazrain

A What Kind of Cloud?

A big shout out to Amie Montes who captured an interesting cloud photo taken today near Willcox.

Here is the photo, and at first glance it certainly looks like it could be a funnel cloud.

Beaver Tail Cloud

What do you see?

Okay here’s the scoop. Without seeing video we don’t know if the cloud is rotating.

Looking back at our Doppler radar from earlier today, there was no indication of rotation in any of our afternoon storms.

So the question is, what kind of cloud is this? The answer: a Beaver Tail Cloud.

Beaver Tail Clouds form in the boundaries between a thunderstorm’s updraft and downdraft.

In the storms downdraft, the heavier rain-cooled air descends and spreads out laterally.

At the same time, warm, moist air is being lifted.

As this warmer air becomes saturated it undergoes condensation and becomes visible in the shape of the ‘Beaver Tail’.

According to the American Meteorological Society, ‘the Beaver Tail shows that a supercell thunderstorm is getting its act together’

The Beaver Tail Cloud can become a much larger Shelf Cloud if there is enough low-level moisture.

Monsoon Madness ‘A Tale of Two Cities’

Have you been a bit disappointed lately with the lack of rain in midtown Tucson?

Would you belive me if I told you that this monsoon has been epic so far? Well it has, and I’ve got the proof.

As of today, Tucson (at the airport where records are kept) is way above average for July rain. Monsoon City Column

In fact we are at double in the rain department.

 

 

 

 

Monsoon City Column 2And if this wasn’t enough to wash away any doubt – check out the July rain in Douglas:

Nearly 700% of average for July.

So despite what you may consider a slow start to the monsoon, we are actually faring quite well.

 

 

 

I expect a bit of a downturn in rain chances from Friday through the weekend, but some signs are indicating another uptick as we head into the middle of next week.

Hopefully the daily round of storms works its way a bit farther to the north.

Matt’s Monsoon Update

Here’s my Monday monsoon update.

We’re off to a good start this year when it comes to our monsoon rain. Nearly 1″ of rain fell at TIA on Friday, and way more out toward Vail.

We have two positive factors for the potential of heavy rain this week and one potentially negative.

I’ll address the ‘good’ first, good  if you were hoping for rain.temp1

1) Tropical Storm Erick

A very favorable factor is on our side if you like rain. Tropical Storm Erick is churning to the West off  Baja  in Mexico. Often times we get what’s called a ‘gulf surge’ from tropical storms – even when they’re well to our south. Essentially, mid level moisture travels up the Sea of Cortez and helps us in the rain category. We still need a ‘trigger” or a mechanism to lift this tropical moisture to create rain. Enter factor #2.

2) A disturbance moving from East to West.

Remember the definition of monsoon? A seasonal shift of the wind. While most of the year we look to the West for our weather, disturbances this time of year come from the East and can help lift our moist air to create the rain. A disturbance is moving our way and should help lift our moist air for good rain chances. In the following picture you can see an area of lower pressure to our Southeast- this would be our trigger. wave

The Bad

I’ve seen this too many times during the summer months. Often times despite a ‘trigger’ and good moisture, we do NOT get good rain in the Desert. This can be a function of too much of a good thing.

Ample storms may fire-up, many miles away from Tucson, but they can weaken sending us only clouds. If we are left with leftover clouds, we do not get warm enough at the surface to destabilize the atmosphere for convection (aka storms).

So as of now, I think the two ‘good’ factors outweigh the one ‘bad’ one and parts of Southern Arizona get abundant rain this week. But keep in mind, as contrary as it may sound, waking up with sunshine is a good thing if you are hoping for rain!

From the Heat to the Rain

It’s now in the record books: for the first time ever, all 30 days in June were greater than 100 degrees in Tucson. 

So if you thought it was unusually hot, you were correct.

Chapter II: The monsoon 

Thanks to the position of high pressure, which also brought us the heat, moisture has already begun moving into the region.

Dew point’s at TIA are now near 50 degrees and forecasted to increase over the next few days.

You may recall that the dew point is the absolute measurement of how much moisture is in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

The following images are high-resolution depictions of projected rainfall across the region for the next 72 hours.

72 HR RPM
72 HR RPM

This image is our 72 hour RPM model indicating a noticeable uptick in our monsoon.

We like to look at other model runs to make sure that there is consistency among our forecasting tools.

WRF UA

This image is from the WRF Hi-Res Model from the UA

Bottom line: The first week of July looks to be at least the beginning of what I hope is a great monsoon.